Korean Unification and a New East Asian Order

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요약 Summary Korean Unification and a New East Asian Order Edited by Choi Jinwook 　　What would East Asia look like in the aftermath of the unification of the two Koreas? And what are the possible triggers and pathways to a united Korea? A united Korea would certainly be one of the most dramatic and long-awaited developments in world politics. The two Koreas have been locked in a Cold War standoff for over half a century. North Korea has been frozen in totalitarian backwardness while South Korea has vaulted into the 21st century. The unification of the Koreas would be greeted by most of the world as an unalloyed blessing, both for the Korean people and the wider region. Benefits would flow immediately, measured in terms of peace and security, economic wellbeing, and social justice and human rights. North Koreans would experience dramatic new economic opportunities and rising living standards. South Koreans would be burdened with major aid and adjustment costs. But over the longer term, a united Korean economy would be bigger and more formidable. Almost immediately, the insecurity of living on the edge on the most militarized and dangerous border in the world would disappear. In the meantime, political leaders in a united Korea and across the region would have new opportunities to rethink and reorganize great power relations and East Asian order. 　　But the happy story of a unified Korea obscures the dangers and uncertainties of the passageway to unification. For Korean unification to occur, the North Korean regime will need to collapse or in some other way cease to exist. History shows that states do not leave the world stage frequently or willingly. China is North Korea’s patron and it has a long-standing stake in a stable and friendly North Korea on its Northeast border. The United States is South Korea’s closest ally and it sees North Korea as a growing threat and China as a growing rival. The Cold War standoff between the two Koreas has lasted so long in part because each of the states in the region ? China, the United States, North Korea, and South Korea ? can easily imagine a “change” in the status quo that leaves it worse off rather than better off. The road to unification is rocky and dangerous. This is because one of the states (North Korea) would need to collapse or commit suicide for it to happen. It is also because the other states ? China, the United States, and South Korea ? might want unification under some conditions but not others. China does not want a unified Korea tied to the United States, and the United States does not want to lose one of its closest allies in East Asia precisely when China, its only global rival, is growing more powerful. Most observers would probably agree that, at least in the long term, the unification of Korea is an historical inevitability. There would be less agreement about how peaceful and stable this outcome will be.

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