A critical juncture

책 소개

The United States has traditionally enjoyed a bipartisan foreign policy. The policy direction, however, which the Bush Administration took in the aftermath of September 11, 2001 terrorist attack, triggered a controversy both domestically and overseas. It is generally believed that if Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry wins the election in November, American foreign policy will change. It is not clear, however, what will change and how much. Even if President George W. Bush is reelected, his policy, particularly unilateralism, is unlikely to remain the same as during his first term.Introduction The 2004 U.S. Presidential Election and the North Korean Nuclear Crisis The U.S. presidential election is also likely to have a great impact on the North Korean nuclear crisis. Kerry faults President Bush for failing to stop North Korea’s nuclear program and announced bilateral talks with Pyongyang, as opposed to the multilateral approach of the Bush Administration. The U.S. presidential election affects the pre-election situation as well as the post-election U.S. policy towards North Korea. The Bush Administration’s more specific proposal to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis in the third round of 6-Party Talks, held in June 2004, was partially attributed to the concern about a possible negative impact of the nuclear crisis on the campaign. In fact, the Kerry campaign has criticized Bush Administration for ignoring the threat of the North’s nuclear program. Pyongyang also carefully watches the U.S. presidential election, and seems to be flexible in its negotiation strategies with Washington, depending on changing election prospects. This study analyzes the impact of the U.S. presidential election on the North Korean nuclear crisis with a special focus on the difference between President George W. Bush and Democratic candidate John F. Kerry in overall foreign policy as well as in specific policy towards North Korea. It will analyze such factors as North Korean intentions and policy directions, relations between the United States and South Korea, and inter-Korean relations. Policies of China, Japan, and Russia towards the North Korean nuclear crisis will be considered in the analysis. This study will also analyze the prospects for the North Korean nuclear crisis. Three scenarios are proposed, with estimates of likelihood. Finally, this study offers some policy suggestions. This study is composed of six chapters. The first chapter is an overview of the 2004 U.S. presidential election. This chapter is to review election issues and to analyze the prospects for the election. It also analyzes the significance of foreign policy issues in the election. Chapter II compares the position of George W. Bush and John F. Kerry on such major foreign policy issues as the War on Terror, WMD, unilateralism, preemption, military transformation, and promotion of democracy. Chapter III analyzes similarities and differences of Bush and Kerry on North Korea policy. Specifically, it compares the two candidates on perceptions towards Kim Jong-il’s North Korea, policy goal, and policy means. Chapter IV is to analyze North Korean intentions and surrounding environments. Specifically, it analyzes North Korea’s concerns, strategies, and policy making process. It also analyzes other determining factors of ROK-U.S. relations, inter-Korean relations, and policy directions of Japan, Russia, and China. Chapter V analyzes the prospects for the North Korean nuclear crisis. Three scenarios are proposed and evaluated. Finally, Chaper VI briefly summarizes the research findings and provides some policy suggestions.

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