2019년 및 중기경제전망

요 약 / vii I. 대내외 경제여건 ························································································1 1. 세계 경제여건 ································································································1 가. 세계경제성장률 전망 ··············································································1 나. 세계교역량과 물가 전망 ·········································································2 다. 세계경제의 위험요인 ··············································································5 2. 국내 경제여건 ································································································7 가. 경제성장률 추이 ······················································································7 나. 경기 국면 진단 ·······················································································8 다. 내수와 수출 여건 ····················································································9 라. 고용과 물가 여건 ·················································································12 3. 국제유가 및 원자재 ····················································································14 가. 국제유가 및 원자재 동향 ·····································································14 나. 국제유가 및 원자재 전망 ·····································································17 Ⅱ. 2019년 및 중기 전망 ···········································································21 1. 경제성장률 ···································································································21 가. 2019년 전망 ·························································································21 나. 중기(2018~2022년) 경제성장률 전망 ················································27 다. 국회예산정책처와 정부 경제성장률 전망 비교 ···································28 2. 민간소비 ·······································································································30 가. 2019년 전망 ·························································································30 나. 중기 전망 ······························································································35 3. 건설투자 ·····································································································45 가. 2019년 전망 ·························································································45 나. 중기 전망 ····························································································50 4. 설비투자 ·····································································································53 가. 2019년 전망 ·······················································································53 나. 중기 전망 ····························································································59 5. 지식재산생산물투자 ···················································································66 가. 2019년 전망 ·······················································································66 나. 중기 전망 ······························································································68 6. 대외거래 ·······································································································72 가. 2019년 전망 ·························································································72 나. 중기 전망 ······························································································79 7. 고용 ············································································································84 가. 2019년 전망 ·······················································································84 나. 중기 전망 ··························································································89 8. 물가 ··············································································································94 가. 2019년 전망 ·························································································94 나. 중기 전망 ······························································································97 9. 금리 ···········…

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