The North Korean Nuclear Test and the Future of Northeast Asia

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The North Korean Nuclear Test and The Future of Northeast Asia KINU-Asia Foundation Joint Conference Proceeding Monday, December 4, 2006 Summary On September 19th, 2006, the six powers in East Asia agreed on a series of principles that seemed to lead to a peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear row. However, the agreement left unclear the issue of the sequence of procedures to be followed, and disputes arose immediately over whether disarmament or the award of benefits would come first. Moreover, North Korea said it would not return to the multilateral talks unless the U.S. lifted a crackdown on financial institutions dealing with North Korean companies suspected of counterfeiting American dollars and engaged in money laundering. The U.S. was determined to protect its currency, and as a result, was unlikely to be willing to concede ground or otherwise make compromises on this issue. To make matters worse, North Korea proceeded to conduct missile and nuclear tests in defiance of the warnings of the international community. This in turn led directly to the referral of North Korea to the United Nations Security Council and the imposition of sanctions. Although North Korea agreed to return to the long-stalled six-party talks at the strong urging of China, it seems that, given that the U.S. and its allies are aggressively implementing sanctions against the North, the stalemate and instability are likely to persist with potentially dangerous consequences. It is time for the participants in the six-party talks to consider the situation anew and discuss a new approach to solving this problem. There is no question that North Korea created a serious threat not only to South Korea, the United States, and Japan, but also to the global non-proliferation regimes. It should also be noted that it violated the agreements it had reached with the international community, i.e. the North-South Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula of 1992. Therefore, the North deserves condemnation and sanctions by the United Nations in general and by the nations directly affected in particular. Having said that, it would be prudent for the international community to find an effective way to defang North Korea safely. This could potentially reduce the risks involved (and the accompanying costs in blood and treasure) to the lowest level possible, while simultaneously pursuing sanctions that would deny the North the sources of money and materials for its nuclear programs. This paper will review and discuss policy options currently available to the U.S. and assess the merits and demerits of each option, assuming that the U.S. would pursue the policy that brings it the best payoffs.

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