책 소개
Numerous studies related to the unification issue have been conducted; however, in most cases the focus was on pending issues and short-term policy goals. Moreover, very little research can be found that scientifically reviews and predicts the factors for unification based on objective data. Thus, the goal of this research is to objectively measure and analyze various factors that affect unification, and to design an optimal forecast model (Unification Forecast Clock) to actualize a peaceful solution. The 2010 Unification Forecasting Clock project is the outcome of a long-term research plan. It developed initially out of a theoretical foundation in two books: Unification Scenarios and Policy Implementations in the Unification Process: A Theoretical Model and Experts’ Perspectives (2002), and Unification Forecast Model: Index Development and North Korean System Transformation Trends (2003) both published by the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU). Based on this foundation, the Unification Forecast Clock project was launched in 2009. A rare index on the Korean Peninsula, the project was designed as a multi-year plan, and this report is the summary of its second-year research. This study is on the second-year results of the three-year project. Because it is focused on predicting the future based on the accumulated knowledge of the past as well as the intellectual judgments of the present, it is obvious that there are intrinsic limitations in the method. Moreover, since it deals with unification issues comprising complex and uncertain factors, careful attention is required. To develop accurate knowledge regarding unification and to draw effective policies based on it, this research needs to be implemented on a continual basis.
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