책 소개
2024년 12월 한신대학교 유라시아연구소는 ‘HEI 총서’ 제6권을 출판한다. 본 연구소는 2021년부터 유라시아지역 엘리트 정치 구조와 행위자 연구를 체계적으로 진행하며 그 성과를 엮어 지금까지 총 5권의 총서를 발행하였다. 그런데 제6권 출판을 앞둔 바로 이 시점에 공교롭게도 세계질서는 요동치고 있다. 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁이 여전히 진행 중이며, 이스라엘-팔레스타인 전쟁은 소강상태지만 언제 격화될지 모르는 상황이다. 소강상태였던 시리아 내전은 다시 격화되고 있다. 나아가 2025년에는 트럼프가 미국 제47대 대통령으로 취임한다. 기존 질서의 현상 변경이 여러 곳에서 시도되고 있으며, 각국의 기회주의적 속성은 강화될 전망이다. 그리고 이러한 작금 상황에서는 엘리트 요인의 중요성이 그 어떠한 시기보다 더욱 두드러진다. ‘엘리트 요인 중심의 동태적 정세예측 모형’을 개발하려는 연구기관의 입장에서 더욱 큰 책임감을 느끼고 있다. 본 연구소에 대한 여러분의 지속적인 관심과 격려 그리고 비판을 바란다. - 책을 펴내며 中
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책을 펴내며 ········································································ 8 서 장 제1장 정치 엘리트와 체제 변동 주장환 (한신대학교 중국학과·유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 서론 ················································································ 17 Ⅱ. 4차원적 정치 체제 유형법 ··············································· 21 Ⅲ. 정치 엘리트-체제 유형: 대응과 대표 사례 ······················· 27 Ⅳ. 결론 ················································································ 38 제 1 부. 유라시아 주요 국가의 엘리트 정치 구조 변동 제2장 시진핑 시기 중국의 과두제 변화와 정책결정 임진희 (한신대학교 유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 들어가는 글 ····································································· 47 Ⅱ. 중국식 과두제 ‘집단영도체제’ ··········································· 49 Ⅲ. 시진핑 시기 특징과 중국 과두제 변화 ······························ 59 Ⅳ. 중국의 국내정치와 대외정책 ············································· 69 Ⅴ. 나가는 글 ········································································ 76 제3장 ‘과두제의 유형과 변화’분석 모델의 시진핑 집권 3기에의 적용 주장환 (한신대학교 중국학과·유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 서론 ··············································································· 85 Ⅱ. 중국 엘리트 정치의 지속과 변화 ···································· 87 Ⅲ. 시진핑 집권 3기 엘리트 정치 동학의 특징 ····················· 98 Ⅳ. 결론 ············································································· 106 제4장 푸틴 집권기 러시아 행정부 파워엘리트의 구조 변화 탐색 연담린 (한신대학교 유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 서론 ············································································· 119 Ⅱ. 연구방법 ······································································ 122 Ⅲ. 행정부 엘리트의 과두제 동학: 푸틴 집권기(2000-2024년) ·· 130 Ⅳ. 결론 ············································································· 147 제5장 우즈베키스탄 카리모프와 미르지요예프의 개인 독재 전략 박상운·김시헌 (한신대학교 유라시아연구소·한국외국어대학교 국제지역대학원) Ⅰ. 들어가며 ········································································ 157 Ⅱ. 독재자 권력 집중화 논의 ··············································· 158 Ⅲ. 카리모프의 독재 전략 ···················································· 162 Ⅳ. 미르지요예프의 독재 전략 ·············································· 170 Ⅴ. 나오며 ··········································································· 179 제 2 부. 유라시아 주요 국가 정치 엘리트 변동 제6장 개혁·개방기 중국 정치 엘리트 유형 변동 주장환 (한신대학교 중국학과·유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 서론 ·············································································· 195 Ⅱ. 연구 설계 ······································································ 198 Ⅲ. 개혁·개방기 중국 엘리트 변동에 대한 통시 비교 접근 ···· 201 Ⅳ. 나가며 ··········································································· 213 제7장 푸틴 집권기에 형성된 엘리트 유형과 권위주의 유형비교 연구 연담린 (한신대학교 유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 서론 ············································································· 223 Ⅱ. 연구방법과 측정변수 ····················································· 226 Ⅲ. 푸틴 집권기 의회엘리트의 권위주의화 동학 ·················· 239 Ⅳ. 결론 ············································································· 255 제8장 카자흐스탄 의회 엘리트 유형 변화 박상운 (한신대학교 유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 들어가며 ······································································ 267 Ⅱ. 히글리와 렝겔의 정치 엘리트 유형화 ···························· 268 Ⅲ. 분석 방법 ····································································· 274 Ⅳ. 카자흐스탄 의회 엘리트 유형 변화 ······························· 276 Ⅴ. 나오며 ·········································································· 296
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