책 소개
한신대학교 유라시아연구소(HEI)가 『엘리트 변동과 중국의 양자관계: 한국, 미국, 북한, 대만, 일본』을 출판한다. 이 책은 2021년 한국연구재단 인문사회연구소 지원사업으로 시작된, ‘디지털 트랜스포메이션 시대 한반도 정세예측모형 개발을 위한 신북방지역 엘리트 연구’의 주요 결과물 중 하나인 ‘HEI 총서’의 제9권이다. 이 책은 전체 맥락에서 특히 다음과 같은 특징을 가진다. 첫째, ‘이론’ 측면에서 그동안 공백이었던 엘리트 변수를 중심으로 대안적 국제관계 연구의 흐름을 체계적으로 형성하고자 하였다. 실제로 서론을 통해서 엘리트 변수 중심의 동태적 국제관계 변화 분석틀을 ‘국제관계변화에 대한 구조-행위자 통합 형태발생론 모델’로 구체화했다. 둘째, 제2장부터 제6장까지 ‘실재’ 분석의 측면에서 엘리트 변수를 중심으로 한 국제관계 연구가 가지는 분석의 적실성을 검증하기 위해 통시적 비교분석 방법을 활용하였다. 구체적으로 중국과 한국, 미국, 북한, 대만, 일본 간 관계에 대한 통시적 비교 사례 연구를 진행했다. - 책을 펴내며 中 -
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책을 펴내며 ··········································································· 8 제1장 대안적 국제관계 변화에 대한 분석틀 설계를 위한 시론(試論) 주장환 (한신대학교 동아시아통상학전공·유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 들어가며 ·········································································· 17 Ⅱ. 대안적 국제관계 변화 분석틀: 국제관계 변화에 대한 구조-행위자 통합 형태발생론 모델 ······················································ 19 Ⅲ. 국제관계 변화에 대한 구조-행위자 통합 형태발생론 모델의 적용 (예시) ·············································································· 28 Ⅳ. 나가며 ············································································· 32 제2장 대통령 리더십의 변화와 한중관계: 이명박·박근혜 대통령을 중심으로 임진희 (한신대학교 유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 들어가는 말 ····································································· 41 Ⅱ. 대통령 리더십 유형과 관련한 논의들 ······························· 44 Ⅲ. 이명박 대통령 리더십과 한중관계 ··································· 51 Ⅳ. 박근혜 대통령 리더십과 한중관계 ··································· 57 Ⅴ. 나가는 글 ······································································ 64 제3장 대통령 리더십의 변화와 미중관계: 트럼프와 바이든을 중심으로 임진희 (한신대학교 유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 들어가는 글 ··································································· 73 Ⅱ. 대통령 리더십 유형과 관련한 논의들 ······························ 77 Ⅲ. 트럼프의 리더십과 미중관계 ··········································· 85 Ⅳ. 바이든의 리더십과 미중관계 ··········································· 98 Ⅴ. 나가는 글 ······································································ 108 제4장 북한 김정은 시기 엘리트 변동과 북중관계: 당대회의 군정 엘리트 변화를 중심으로 이상숙 (국립외교원) Ⅰ. 서론 ················································································ 119 Ⅱ. 사회주의 체제의 개혁․개방 시기 엘리트 변동과 북한 대외정책 변화 ············································································ 121 Ⅲ. 7차 당대회 북한 엘리트 변동과 대중국 정책(2012-2020) ·································································· 127 Ⅳ. 8차 당대회 시기 북한 엘리트 변동과 대중국 정책(2021-2025) ·································································· 134 Ⅴ. 결론: 두 시기의 비교와 향후 전망 ··································· 138 제5장 양안관계 변화의 통시 비교 연구: ‘열린 결론’ 접근 주장환 (한신대학교 동아시아통상학전공·유라시아연구소) Ⅰ. 서론 ················································································ 145 Ⅱ. 분석틀: 동태적 양국관계 분석 모델 ········································· 149 Ⅲ. 탈-탈냉전기, 양안관계 변화: 동태적 양국관계 분석 모델의 적용 ························································································ 153 Ⅳ. 결론 ························································································ 168 제6장 엘리트 상호작용과 중일관계: 마오쩌둥-다나카과 후진타오-고이즈미 시기 비교 오승희 (국립외교원) Ⅰ. 서론 ·········································································· 179 Ⅱ. 분석틀: 중국의 대일 인정 메커니즘 ······································· 181 Ⅲ. 사례 분석 ········································································· 187 Ⅳ. 비교분석: 인정의 조건과 한계 ················································· 198 Ⅴ. 결론 ·············································································· 203
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