Northeast Asia in 2030

책 소개

Notwithstanding political asymmetry among the nations, the interplay of globalization and national strategy has transformed Northeast Asia as one of the most vibrant and prosperous economic zones in the world. The spectacular rise of Northeast Asia in the global footprint has accompanied the rise of China from the largest poor nation to the world factory. By 2030, barring major crisis, China would have become or about to become the largest economy in the world, overtaking the US. As the rise of China continues, China is getting more assertive on its own interest, disregarding the existing rules of the game. China’s trade retaliation on the deployment of THAAD in Korea is a case in point. The fiasco laid bare rather fragile institutional foundation and the inherent risk of trade architecture of Northeast Asia. Without strengthening institutional foundation and upgrading trade architecture, the future navigation of Northeast Asia confronts so much uncertainties and risks. Will Northeast Asia forge ahead with common interface or drift away with fragmentation? This book is an attempt to project future trajectories of economic architecture of Northeast Asia by 2030. In projecting future trajectories of economic architecture of Northeast Asia by 2030, two trade games are analyzed with historical evolution and strategic interaction: the contest between China, the rising power, and the US, the incumbent power; and the contest between China and its neighbor countries of Korea and Japan. For Factory China to be operational and lead Northeast Asia to its remarkable economic achievement, the nexus of ideology-institution- technology was critical. Advance of new digital technological breakthrough and the headwinds of economic nationalism, however, have disrupted such a long-standing nexus. Moreover, the election of Trump and consolidating power of Xi have pushed the world to the uncharted territory of “New Normal”, where rule-based free trade is giving into power-based managed trade. Using the two-level perspective, the book analyzes the main features of “New Normal” and discusses its consequences on Northeast Asia. In the light of the surge of nationalism and populism with the receding globalism, policy makers face the daunting challenge of inclusive yet deeper institutionalization. The future trajectory of Northeast Asia is closely tied to the speed and scope of China’s further and deeper liberalization and reform, which is likely to be slow, gradual, and incomprehensive. Hence, forward-looking and visionary trade activism is in need. Status quo and further delay in embarking on inclusive and deeper institutionalization would fragment trading architecture of Northeast Asia. This book identifies policy options for inclusive and deeper institutionalization, and comes up with grand strategies for moving forward.

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